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FXUS61 KPHI 161841
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
241 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Record breaking warmth continues through today, with
above normal temperatures into the first half of the weekend.
Possible showers tonight and Friday.

2. Elevated fire weather potential today.

3. A strong cold front will cross through the area on Sunday
resulting in a period of increased showers and some thunderstorms.
Much cooler temperatures will follow into early next week,
potentially frost and/or freeze concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Record breaking warmth continues through today, with
above normal temperatures into the first half of the weekend.
Possible showers tonight and Friday.

With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean, a return flow
remains across the area, and ridging aloft will allow keep warm air
across the area through today. The warm air aloft coupled with warm
air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to
30 degrees above normal through the end of the week.

Temperatures have climbed into the mid to upper 80s already, and
will likely reach the low 90s for many areas. Dewpoints will mix out
a bit more today compared to Wednesday, and have already dropped
into the mid to upper 50s for many areas. This would normally
support even warmer temperatures, however thicker cirrus could limit
heating a bit more. In any case, still expecting several high
temperature and warmest low temperature records to fall today. See
the Climate Section below for temperature records stats.

As is typical in spring though, temperatures along/near the coast
will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface
temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front
passes through early Friday morning, temperatures will stay well
above normal into Saturday with highs mainly in the mid 70s to mid
80s.

With the approach of the cold front tonight, there will be a chance
of scattered showers. The first round will be possible between sunset
and midnight for portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New
Jersey as an initial vorticity impulse moves across the area. It
would not be surprising for a few lightning strikes to occur as
well. The second round of showers will be overnight with the frontal
passage. On Friday, there may be a few additional showers as the
trough aloft moves across the area and some daytime instability may
lead to some weak convection.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated fire weather potential today.

A period of fire weather conditions supportive of fire spread is
forecast today, as very warm and dry conditions continue. Min RH
values will drop into the 25-35% range for many locales across
eastern PA, NJ and Delmarva. This will be accompanied by southwest
winds around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Due
to lack of recent rainfall, there is some potential for fire spread.
A Special Weather Statement will be warranted for some areas.

This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry
conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse
after this week. While there are a few instances of showers over the
next couple of days, any rainfall totals will be minimal.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A strong cold front will cross through the area on
Sunday resulting in a period of increased showers and some
thunderstorms. Much cooler temperatures will follow into early next
week, potentially frost and/or freeze concerns.

A backdoor cold front arrives Friday night into Saturday across
parts of the area and guidance is now keen on having this backdoor
front pushing completely south of our region by Saturday afternoon.
This would lead to cooler temperatures expected on Saturday, where
highs are currently forecast to be mainly in the 70s, cooler along
the coast and warmest further inland. This backdoor front will then
move back north as a warm front by Saturday night as a strong upper
level trough begins to approach the area.

A strong cold front will precede this trough and slide across the
region late Saturday night into Sunday morning. A weak area of low
pressure may also develop along the front in our vicinity. As the
main trough axis hangs back farther to the west, much of the shower
activity may occur behind the actual front. Given the strength of
the incoming upper-level trough, forcing for ascent should be strong
enough to result in increasing shower coverage for a time. The
thunder risk at this time looks rather low given the timing of the
front, however some rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. This
will be beneficial rain, and it will also result in a significant
cool down into early next week. A gusty wind will also occur
especially in the wake of the cold front for Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night, and this should limit frost formation into early
Monday morning. Much lighter winds and a colder air mass with high
pressure settling overhead should set the stage for frost and/or
freeze conditions Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Temperatures then rebound Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR conditions continue. South to southwest winds 5-
10 knots, with gusts 15-20 knots. High confidence.

Tonight...Generally VFR. Scattered showers this evening may lead to
brief lower conditions at ABE and RDG. Additional showers overnight
are not expected to lead to lower conditions. Wind gusts drop off by
sunset. Winds shift to the northwest overnight behind a cold front.
High confidence.

Friday...VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds 5-10 knots, with
gusts 15-20 knots during the day. A few showers may develop through
the day.  High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather expected.

Saturday night through Sunday night...Sub-VFR conditions likely at
times. Widespread showers likely with perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm. Winds will become increasingly gusty by Sunday
afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR. Wind gusts up to 25 kt possible on
Monday, otherwise no significant weather expected.


&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds 10-15 knots, with gusts 20-25 knots through
this evening and overnight. Winds overall should remain below
advisory levels, but occasional gusts may gust around 25 knots.
Winds shift to west to northwest overnight into Friday around 5-15
knots.

Outlook...

For Delaware Bay Waters...A period of Small Craft Advisory
conditions probable on Sunday and possibly into Monday due to wind
gusts around 25-30 kt. Otherwise, no marine headlines are expected.

For Atlantic Coastal Waters...A period of Small Craft Advisory
conditions probable on Sunday and possible again on Monday due to
wind gusts around 25-30 kt. Otherwise, no marine headlines are
expected.

For Atlantic Offshore Waters...No marine headlines expected through
Tuesday. Aside for some gusty winds possible on Sunday, winds should
remain below 34 kt during this period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record breaking heat is expected to continue today, including
potential for some sites to experience monthly record warmest
low temperatures for April.

Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for
April 16th and monthly warmest low temperature records for
April.


Record High Temperatures
                          April 16
Site                  Record/Year
Allentown (ABE)           90/2012
AC Airport (ACY)          89/2002
AC Marina (55N)           88/2002
Georgetown (GED)          89/2002
Mount Pocono (MPO)        85/2002
Philadelphia (PHL)        90/2002
Reading (RDG)             90/2012
Trenton (TTN)             91/2012
Wilmington (ILG)          92/1896

Record Warmest Low Temperatures
                          April 16
Site                  Record/Year
Allentown (ABE)           60/1941
AC Airport (ACY)          62/2002
AC Marina (55N)           64/2002
Georgetown (GED)          65/2012
Mount Pocono (MPO)        56/2002
Philadelphia (PHL)        62/2002
Reading (RDG)             65/1941
Trenton (TTN)             62/2002
Wilmington (ILG)          63/2002

Record Warmest Low Temperatures
             Entire Month of April
Site                  Record/Date (Year)
Allentown (ABE)           64/19th (1985 and 2019) and 30th (1983)
AC Airport (ACY)          70/26th (2009)
AC Marina (55N)           67/26th (2009)
Georgetown (GED)          71/29th (2017)
Mount Pocono (MPO)        65/25th (1960)
Philadelphia (PHL)        70/8th (1929) and 19th (1896)
Reading (RDG)             68/25th (1960)
Trenton (TTN)             70/19th (1896) and 20th (1896)
Wilmington (ILG)          74/19th (1896)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Gorse/Robertson/Staarmann
AVIATION...DeSilva/Gorse/Robertson/Staarmann
MARINE...DeSilva/Gorse/Robertson/Staarmann

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion