480
FXUS61 KPHI 122315
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
615 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Tornado Watch has been cancelled for all areas.
Updated discussion for 00z TAFs.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Low pressure moves offshore tonight and slowly pulls away,
resulting in some unsettled weather through the rest of the
week.
2. A stretch of below normal temperatures begins on Friday,
continuing through the weekend as a much colder airmass moves
overhead.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Low pressure moves offshore tonight and slowly
pulls away, resulting in some unsettled weather through the rest
of the week.
A vigorous upper-level trough continues to evolve across the Eastern
U.S. for tonight and into the weekend. This supported the
surface low deepening near our CWA today. The low then heads NE
our across the waters off New England Friday. While there are
still some differences with the handling of the embedded
shortwaves, there is better model clustering with the surface
low placement/track. Overall, it will be unsettled across our
region tonight and Friday.
The tornado threat is over for today and the Tornado Watch has
been cancelled. Just some scattered showers expected through the
rest of the night.
Not much has changed with regards to the cold air following the
system and the subsequent change in p-type for NW areas. The
strength of the parent upper-level trough results in a colder
air mass moving in with time, however the initial air mass is
not all that cold (the lack of a cold antecedent air mass). As
the surface low consolidates off the northern Mid-Atlantic
coast, the winds will turn more out of the northwest and this
will increase the cold air advection. This will result in some
colder air seeping southeastward later tonight but especially
Friday into Friday night. The air mass may become sufficiently
cold enough mostly across our far northwestern zones for some
snow across the higher elevations, confined mainly to the Pocono
Plateau. Any snowfall accumulation is expected to be less than
an inch. Some elevated locations across the Lehigh Valley and
Northwestern NJ may see a few wet flakes mixing in, but no
accumulations are expected. Otherwise, a rain event is forecast.
The amount of precipitation (rain and/or snow) will depend on
the ultimate track of the surface low and whether a deformation
zones wraps back into our northern to central areas. At the
moment, rainfall amounts north of the PA Turnpike to I-195
corridor range around the 0.50-1.25" range while further south
across Philly and south, we are expecting less than 0.50" of
rainfall, with less than 0.10" expected for the southern
Delmarva.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A stretch of below normal temperatures begins
Friday, continuing through the weekend as a much colder airmass
moves overhead.
In the wake of the storm, as it deepens and tracks toward the Canadian
Maritimes over the weekend, a colder air mass will be in place across
our area. In addition, a tightened pressure gradient coupled with
deeper mixing will result in a period of breezy to windy conditions
over the weekend. The strongest winds look to occur on Saturday,
with peak gusts to about 30 mph, then while still gusty on Sunday
it appears the speeds come down a little. Daytime temperatures
on Friday and Saturday should not get out of the 40s for many areas,
with temperatures at night dropping into the 20s to low 30s. Where
the growing season is still active across Delmarva, parts of southern
New Jersey and far southeastern Pennsylvania, frost/freeze headlines
may be necessary. There could even be some lake effect snow and/or
rain showers into the southern Poconos on Saturday.
Temperatures start to moderate a bit Sunday through Tuesday. Despite
that, high temperatures are only in the upper 40s to low 50s each
day which is still below average for this time of year.
While we are likely to get our first freeze sometime during this
stretch, the Frost/Freeze program area-wide ends on Sunday November
15th. Beyond that, no further frost/freeze headlines will be issued.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...Most terminals are VFR to start but a degradation to
MVFR/IFR is expected at all sites shortly as stratus moves in
from the west. Some patchy fog likely develops as well
especially over areas that saw rainfall today. Winds generally
out of the north/northwest around 10 kt. Moderate confidence.
Friday...IFR/LIFR conditions expected with periods of rain, low
clouds, and fog persisting. Winds out of the northwest around
10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Moderate confidence.
Friday Night...IFR/LIFR conditions to start but conditions
gradually improve as drier air moves in. Expecting VFR after 06z
at most sites. Northwest winds around 10 kt. Moderate
confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Northwest wind gusts 20-30
knots.
Monday...VFR. No significant weather.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters. Winds and
seas will build overnight. Behind the low, winds will remain in
SCA range through Friday. A few Gale gusts are possible too.
Showers and tstms this evening and more showers on Friday.
Outlook...
Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions probable. Near gale
force wind gusts possible.
Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.
Monday...Marine conditions will be below advisory criteria.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/MJL/PO/RCM
AVIATION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/MJL/PO/RCM
MARINE...MJL/PO/RCM
KNJHAMIL26 - Jeffs Backyard Weather
50°F
Hamilton Square, Mercer County, NJ, USA
Updated:
12-Nov-2026 6:55pm
