000 FXUS61 KPHI 042326 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 726 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will become more centered to our east and northeast through tonight, however it will continue to extend across our region. The high weakens and shifts more to our northeast Thursday into Friday. A strong cold front moves through on Saturday, which brings a colder and much drier air mass into our region over the weekend through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Skies remain mostly clear into tonight as high pressure is in control and winds go light, mainly out of the east. With similar conditions to Tuesday night, will lean on persistence and MOS guidance for overnight lows which should favor the 50s areawide. Some fog may again develop, especially in the river valleys but also over coastal NJ due to the light onshore flow. There may also be some low stratus that tries to develop and move in off the ocean late at night but forecast confidence is low on this. Thursday will again be another dry day and feature above average temperatures, though a few degrees lower than Wednesday, as the surface high migrates off to the east but extends a ridge back across our area. 500 mb heights will slowly begin to fall as the upper ridge axis shifts east and a digging upper trough approaches from the west. Moisture advection aloft with southerly flow will lead to an increase in mid-level cloud coverage ahead of the return of precipitation chances on Friday. Low level flow will be east/southeasterly and thus expect highs near the coast to be a few degrees cooler. Looking at values topping out in the upper 70s inland with low 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... This will be the transitional period for the weather across the Middle Atlantic. High pressure and the mild temperatures of the present and past few days will be moving away as the surface high and upper ridge move away. A H5 low/trough will deepen as it pushes our way Fri thru Sat. The low level moisture behind the departing high will deepen thru the period as low level flow off the ocean continues. Increasing amounts of clouds and gradually higher pops thu the period with the greatest chances for rains being on Sat when a surface cold front passes from west to east. We will have mostly chance pops for Fri ramping up to high chance/low likely pops for Sat. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper low to the north of the area Sat night/Sunday will continue into the new week while weakening somewhat. By next week, the feature will have diminished back to a trough and it will continue to weaken after that. Cool autumn weather but mostly dry thru the period. A couple showers Sat night as the surface low and front from the short term continue to pull away to the NE. Some diurnal shower activity is possible Sun with the colder temperatures aloft remaining over the area. The showers will be found mainly across the higher elevations of the southern Poconos and north NJ. Temperatures Sun and next week will be below normal with highs Sun/Mon only in the low/mid 60s for the urban/Delmarva areas and mid/upper 50s for the NW counties. By Tue/Wed readings will be some 5 degrees milder. Lows thru the period will be mostly 40s with some 30s N/W Mon morning. Gusty winds expected for Sat night/Sunday with gusts 20 to 30 mph at times. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...Areas of fog may result in MVFR/periods of IFR visibility after 07z, especially at KMIV/KACY and KTTN/KPNE where guidance is the most aggressive on reduced visibility. KPHL looks to be right on the cusp of this but should stay mainly VFR with just a tempo group for MVFR visbys indicated near dawn. Variable wind 5 knots or less. Moderate confidence in fog development and restrictions. Thursday...VFR after any lingering fog dissipates through the morning. There will be scattered low and mid level cloudiness around. Light and variable wind in the morning becoming southeasterly at 5-10 knots. High confidence. Outlook... Thu night... Low clouds and perhaps light rain/drizzle possible. MVFR/IFR possible. Limited confid. Fri thru Sat evening... MVFR/IFR at times with showers and fog probable. Gusty winds developing later Sat. Low/medium confid. Sat night/Sunday... VFR. Gusty winds possible. Medium confid. Monday... VFR expected. Medium confid. && .MARINE... No marine headlines expected. Fair weather. Southeasterly wind 5-10 knots through tonight becoming easterly on Thursday around 10-15 knots. Seas 2-3 feet. Outlook... Thu night/Friday...sub-SCA conditions expected. Fair Thu. night and a chance of showers later Friday. Fri night thru Sat night... A period of SCA conditions with winds and seas building as a low and front affect the waters. A short period of near-Gale gusts is possible later Sat. Showers Fri night/Sat then becoming fair overnight Sat night. Sun thru Mon...SCA expected. Fair weather. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Gorse NEAR TERM...Brudy/Fitzsimmons SHORT TERM...OHara LONG TERM...OHara AVIATION...Brudy/Fitzsimmons/OHara MARINE...Brudy/OHara
KNJHAMIL26 - Jeffs Backyard Weather
63°F
Hamilton Square, Mercer County, NJ, USA
Updated:
04-Oct-2023 10:45pm
