252 FXUS61 KPHI 131710 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 110 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Cold front continues to sink south through Friday, bringing gradually improving conditions with high pressure overhead Saturday and the first half of Sunday. 2. Unsettled weather returns Sunday into Monday. 3. Spotty minor tidal flooding possible during the Thursday evening high tide along the Atlantic coast, Delaware Bay, and tidal Delaware River. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front continues to sink south through Friday, bringing gradually improving conditions with high pressure overhead Saturday and the first half of Sunday. The stationary front that has lingered across the region the last few days will continue to sink south as a cold front through tomorrow, allowing gradually improving conditions to filter in. The rest of today and tonight should generally stay dry, though cooler temperatures and lower humidity will not arrive until Friday and especially Saturday. Some showers are possible late Friday into Friday night as the cold front finally shifts far south enough to allow surface high pressure to be overhead Saturday and into early Sunday. The forecast Saturday looks to be the driest, coolest, and least humid day through the weekend. That being said highs on Saturday are only a few degrees lower than Friday, so it won`t be dramatically cooler. High pressure will not last, however, and shift offshore Sunday, bringing return flow back across the region, allowing temperatures to creep back up into the mid to upper 80s and the humidity to return. The morning will be largely dry with chances for rain returning by the afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather returns Sunday into Monday. The next storm system arrives Sunday into Monday as a surface low moves across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and eventually the Mid Atlantic, bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. The biggest change with previous guidance is the spread in the timing of precipitation. There are some models that show precipitation moving in as early as 06 to 12Z Sunday Morning. That being said, there are still a few models not showing rain move in until the afternoon. The net result of this uncertainty is that there are PoPs in place from late Saturday Night all the way through Monday. This long period of rain mention is an artifact of the differences between models in the timing, but I don`t expect rain to occur for that entire period. Regardless of the timing, the primary threat at this point is heavy rain leading to flash flooding. Global guidance shows PWAT values surging back into the 2" range, increasing the potential for heavy downpours within any thunderstorms that develop. As a result, WPC does have much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic in a Marginal risk in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Depending on the timing of the storms, some modest instability may be in place to support a severe potential. That said, the overall synoptic level forcing is limited with the main driving force being a weak upper level trough. At this point, it remains too early to lock down any specifics for severe and flash flood, but we will need to monitor the potential over the next several days. KEY MESSAGE 3...Spotty minor tidal flooding possible during the Thursday evening high tide along the Atlantic coast, Delaware Bay, and tidal Delaware River. With the New Moon having occurred yesterday, astronomical tides for this evening`s high tide cycle will be near minor flooding thresholds for many places along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delware, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River, though tides are expected to begin trending downward as we move away from the New Moon. As of the latest forecast, only spotty minor flooding is possible with this evening`s high tide. Tidal flooding is not currently forecast for the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. This afternoon...VFR. W-NW winds 10 to 15 kts. Tonight...VFR. Winds becoming light and variable. Friday...VFR. W wind around 10 knots. Outlook... Friday night...Primarily VFR though restrictions possible (30-40%) with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms. Saturday through Sunday Morning...VFR. No significant weather. Sunday Afternoon through Monday...Sub-VFR conditions likely (60-70%) at times with widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms anticipated. Tuesday...VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... No prevailing marine hazards expected through Friday. Outlook... Friday through Sunday...No marine headlines expected. Sunday Night through Monday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as seas near 5 feet and southerly wind gusts near 25 kt. Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Rip Currents... For Thursday...A southwesterly wind around 5 to 10 mph. Breaking wave heights will remain around 2 feet or less with a southeasterly 1 foot swell around 6 to 8 seconds. Due to these conditions there is a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents at all beaches. For Friday...Winds shift onshore but generally remain around 10 mph or less with breaking wave heights 2 feet or less with an east to southeasterly 1 foot swell around 8 to 10 seconds. So we will continue with a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents at all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson/MJL AVIATION...Franklin/MJL MARINE...Johnson/MJL
KNJHAMIL26 - Jeffs Backyard Weather
86°F
Hamilton Square, Mercer County, NJ, USA
Updated:
13-Aug-2026 2:35pm
