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FXUS61 KPHI 221045
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
645 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remain in control early today before a weak cold
front moves through by this evening. After that, high pressure
builds in briefly for Sunday. The next system is forecast to
move through on Monday, with a secondary weak cold front moving
through later Tuesday. A weak area of high pressure starts to
build toward our area later Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A strong upper-level trough will pivot across the Northeast during
the afternoon, pushing a low pressure system across New England and
an associated cold front through the Mid Atlantic. While much of the
guidance shows strong shortwave energy accompanying this trough,
moisture is very limited. Thus, the lift from this trough and
arriving cold front may end up going more into cloud production than
precipitation. Clouds will increase into the afternoon, but showers
will be scattered about with sparse coverage overall. The best
chance for any precipitation will be further north with mostly dry
conditions expected for the entire day across southern NJ and the
Delmarva. Warm southwest flow will surge ahead of the arriving cold
front with peak wind gusts around 30-35 mph. This will help
afternoon high temperatures warm into the mid 50s to mid 60s across
much of the area (upper 40s for the Poconos).

The mostly dry, but rather strong cold front will push through the
region late afternoon and into the nighttime hours. In its wake, a
comparatively cold airmass will surge in. Overnight lows will crater
below freezing into the low 20s to low 30s area-wide, with teens
possible in the Poconos. Breezy WNW to NW winds with gusts 25-35 mph
will make wind chills drop into the teens and 20s. The Poconos could
even feel like the single digits! Despite what may feel like a frigid
airmass, this is more of a reality check for us. Spoiled by a streak
of warm temperatures, these lows in the 20s and 30s are actually only
about 5 degrees below climo for this time of the year!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For Sunday and Monday a rather progressive flow will be across our
part of the country. High pressure will be over the area Sunday with
dry weather expected. It won`t last long though as another deep low
moves into the upper Great Lakes and its associated fronts arrive
across our area. Clouds increase later Sunday and rains/snows arrive
Sunday night. The precipitation continues Monday morning before
ending from West to East during the afternoon. The progressive
nature of the system will keep QPF amounts in the light category
with perhaps 1/4 to 1/2 inch mostly. Any snow accums will also be
limited with maybe 1/2 inch for the highest elevations of Carbon and
Monroe PA.

Temps will be cool Sunday with readings near normal. That means
highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Overnight Sunday, readings for
the N/W areas will be in the low 30s (supporting more snow) but
mostly mid/upper 30s elsewhere. Highs on Monday will be above normal
with upper 50s/low 60s mostly with some mid 60s for Delmarva and
south NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No dramatic changes were made to the long term part of the forecast
overnight. The upper trough across the Great Lakes and Northeast
continues to relax allowing weak ridging to develop by the end of
the week. After that, another trough approaches for next weekend.

For temperatures, readings will be close to normal Tue thru Thu.
Following that, mild readings for Friday and into the start of the
weekend. For this time of year, normal highs across the Delaware
Valley and Delmarva see highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid
30s. Further N/W, highs are normally in the upper 40s/low 50s and
lows close to freezing - colder for MPO however.

Precipitation will be around Tue night/Wed morning with chance pops
mostly. This will be caused by a weak low/front which cross the area
in tandem with the retreating upper trough. We`ll keep a dry fcst
for Thu/Fri attm, but we will note that a few of the 00Z OP models
show some showers Thu afternoon/evening with cold front sagging
south from Canada. Activity doesn`t look overly organized attm.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Saturday...VFR. Lowering ceilings expected as the day
progresses, but anticipate ceilings to remain 5000 feet or
greater. A few light showers are possible in the afternoon, so
have included a mention of VCSH at KRDG, KABE, and KTTN.
Southwest winds will become west- northwest late in the
afternoon, with speeds around 10-15 kt and gusts up to 25 kt.
Moderate confidence.

Saturday night...VFR. Northwest winds around 10-15 kt and gusts up
to 25 kt, diminishing overnight. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday... VFR. Increasing clouds late.

Sunday night/Monday morning...MVFR/IFR possible with rains and
fog possible. Snow possible for N/W TAF sites.

Monday afternoon thru Tuesday... VFR expected. Gusty winds later
  Monday.

Tue night/Wed morning...CIG/VSBY restrictions possible with rain
showers across the area.

Wed afternoon... VFR expected

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory in effect for the ocean waters beginning in the
afternoon for seas 3 to 5 feet. Southwest flow will increase to 10-
15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Behind the cold front late
afternoon/evening, northwest winds will surge to 15-25 kts with
gusts as high as 30 kts before gradually diminishing towards
daybreak Sunday morning.

Small Craft Advisory for the Delware Bay will go up late Saturday
afternoon with west winds gusting to 25 kts turning northwest in the
evening, gusting to 30 kts. Winds gradually diminish towards
daybreak Sunday morning.

Outlook...
Sunday... SCA winds diminish Sunday morning. Fair.

Sunday night/Monday...More SCA conditions. Showers expected especially
  after midnight into Monday morning.

Monday night... sub-SCA. Evening showers then Fair weather.

Tuesday thru Thursday... sub-SCA conditions. Scattered showers
   Tuesday night into Wed morning otherwise Fair.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gorse/MJL
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...MJL/OHara
MARINE...MJL/OHara

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion