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FXUS61 KPHI 140815
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
315 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A storm system will bring light rain to the area this
afternoon and evening. Rain will change to snow before ending
Thursday morning. Rapidly falling temperatures behind a cold
front may result in icy roads and hazardous travel for the
Thursday morning commute.

2) Below normal temperatures and blustery conditions will
result in wind chills in the single digits across much of the
area Thursday night into Friday morning.

3) The risk of wintry weather through early next week remains
low, but cold temperatures mean any changes could result in a
return of the chance of snow.

4) An extended period of below normal temperatures is forecast
beginning Sunday and through the middle of next week, with wind
chills in the single digits and teens possible for multiple
consecutive nights.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A storm system will bring light rain to the
area this afternoon and evening. Rain will change to snow before
ending Thursday morning. Rapidly falling temperatures behind a
cold front may result in icy roads and hazardous travel for the
Thursday morning commute.

Low pressure will develop over central Pennsylvania this
afternoon, strengthening as it tracks into interior New York
later tonight. Its associated cold front will track east across
the Mid-Atlantic region tonight as well. Out ahead of the front,
light rain is expected to develop later this morning and
continue through the afternoon, primarily for areas north and
west of the I-95 corridor as lift increases. Elsewhere, dry
conditions under mostly cloudy to overcast skies are expected.
Warm air advection will continue under southwest flow resulting
in very mild temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s
this afternoon.

As the low deepens as it lifts off to the north and east
tonight, should gradually start to see periods of light rain
overspread the remainder of the area. Cold air will also be
rapidly surging in on the backside of the strengthening low and
behind the cold front. This will cause temperatures to rapidly
tumble overnight as the front progresses east where light rain
is expected to changeover to light snow or at the very least a
rain/snow mix. The best chance for accumulating snow will be
across the Pocono Plateau where 1-2 inches of snow are possible.
For areas, north and west of the I-95 corridor, including the
Lehigh Valley and northern New Jersey a quick dusting/coating to
up to a half inch of snow is possible. For areas south and east
of I-95, some flakes are possible, but no accumulations are
expected. Precip should wind down from west to east as the front
moves offshore by Thursday morning. Some residual snow showers
may linger though.

While most of the precip is expected to end by daybreak on
Thursday, the strong cold air advection and gusty WNW winds in
wake of the front will likely result in temperatures below
freezing. Thus, anything that does not dry out has the potential
to result in roadways and bridges becoming icy for the Thursday
morning commute. This risk is higher especially for areas where
snow accumulates before precip ends. As mentioned above, this
greatest threat is in the Poconos, and generally anywhere
northwest of I-95. Making matters more complicated will be that
the rain before the changeover, may wash off any pre-treatment
of surfaces. Recommend to take it slow and use caution while
traveling Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Below normal temperatures and blustery
conditions will result in wind chills in the single digits
across much of the area Thursday night into Friday morning.

Following cold frontal passage Thursday morning, strong cold
advection will persist through Friday morning. This will keep
temperatures steady in the low to mid 30s much of the day, with
westerly winds 15-20 mph gusting 30-35 mph. Wind chills during
the daytime Thursday will only max out in the upper teens to 20s
in most areas. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid
teens to near 20 degrees in most areas by dawn Friday morning.
While inland winds will subside some overnight, still expecting
sustained westerly winds around 10-15 mph much of the night.
Thus, wind chills will fall into the single digits area wide by
dawn Friday, and below zero in the southern Poconos.

The strong cold advection will cease Friday morning, and
gradient winds will shift southwesterly allowing for some
airmass modification. Highs Friday will range from the upper 20s
to mid 30s. However, winds remaining near 10-15 mph will keep
wind chills in the 20s for much of the area during the day.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The risk of wintry weather through early next
week remains low, but cold temperatures mean any changes could
result in a return of the chance of snow.

Following a brief warm up to near normal temperatures ahead of
a cold front Saturday, a cold pattern with below normal
temperatures looks likely to persist through at least the middle
of next week (more details on the cold in Key Message 4). A few
different shortwave troughs will pass across the region during
this time, which could combine and result in a risk of wintry
weather (given conducive temps). At the moment, none of these
appear particularly interesting or impactful, however we could
certainly see some light accumulating snowfall at some point if
everything aligns just right. It`s also within the realm of
possibility that these waves just bring us some flurries or
nothing at all. Have stuck with NBM PoPs through this period due
to the low predictability, which is mostly 20-30%. We will need
to keep a close eye on this period given the cold that will be
present, but at this time the risk of significant wintry weather
beyond Thursday through early next week is low.

KEY MESSAGE 4...An extended period of below normal temperatures
is forecast beginning Sunday and through the middle of next
week, with wind chills in the single digits and teens possible
for multiple consecutive nights.

There is increasing confidence that our region will experience
an extended period of below normal temperatures beginning Sunday
through at least the middle of next week. Daytime temperatures
will be in the 20s and 30s and nighttime temperatures in the 10s
and 20s, and as low as the single digits north of I-78. This
combined with persistent winds will result in the potential for
multiple consecutive nights of wind chills in the single digits
and teens in many areas, and in below zero in the southern
Poconos.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of Tonight (through 11Z)...VFR with BKN/OVC mid-level
clouds. LLWS through 08-09Z. South-southwest winds around 5-10
kt becoming light and variable at times. High confidence.

Wednesday...Primarily VFR with overcast skies. South-southwest
winds around 5-10 kt. Light rain expected at KRDG and KABE after
14-15Z with VSBY restrictions possible after 20Z. Elsewhere, a
stray shower possible after 21Z, with no VSBY restrictions.
Moderate-high confidence overall.

Wednesday night...Any lingering VFR ceilings early will lower
to MVFR and IFR overnight, primarily after 03-06Z from west to
east. Periods of light rain expected, gradually changing over to
a rain/snow mix or all snow from west to east. Southwest winds
around 5-10 kt early in the evening, becoming west-northwest
around 10-20 kt late. Low-moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR. Gusty WNW winds.

Friday...VFR. Gusty SW winds possible. LLWS possible Friday
night.

Saturday and Sunday...VFR most likely, but low chance of
restrictions if light rain/snow develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories on the Atlantic Coastal Waters have been
extended through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory for the
Delaware Bay has also been issued beginning at 3 AM Thursday.

South-southwest winds around 15-25 kt will diminish to around
10-20 kt later this morning and through the afternoon. Seas of
4-6 feet will lower to around 3-5 feet this afternoon. Southwest
winds around 10-20 kt tonight will gradually turn to west-
northwest overnight as a cold front passes through. Winds may
gust up to 25-30 kt as the front passes with seas building back
to 4-6 feet. Light rain expected tonight, may mix with light
snow at times.

Outlook...

Thursday...Small Craft Advisory in effect. WNW winds 20-30 kts.
A brief period of gale force wind gusts near 35 kts possible
Thursday morning as a cold front pushes offshore. Seas 4-6 feet.

Thursday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected, with
potential for gale force wind gusts near 35 kts developing much
of the night into Friday morning. Gale Watch was issued for all
coastal waters. Freezing spray possible. Seas lingering near 5
feet across the Atlantic waters.

Friday through Sunday...Advisory conditions likely at times. A
slight chance of rain and snow Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ430-
     431.
     Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/RCM/Staarmann
AVIATION...DeSilva/Staarmann
MARINE...DeSilva/Staarmann

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion